When you think about the impacts of climate change, what comes to mind?
For many it is sea level rise, melting glaciers, loss of biodiversity and increased frequency and severity of storms and droughts. But what about the places like Clinton that are far from the ocean?
How will we be impacted by climate change here?
Exhibit at the Wellin Museum (2021)
In addition to increased flooding, more crop vulnerability, extreme heat events, and warmer temperatures, we will also likely see shorter winters with less snow, increased spread of disease and higher heat-related mortality rates.
I chose to focus on three factors: Lyme disease, biodiversity and dairy production to highlight some potentially less-known climate crisis impacts in New York State and Oneida County. While there are intentionally no people illustrated, these drawings address threats to human health, food and job security and changes to our ecosystem. I want to acknowledge that I am approaching this topic through the lens of a white woman attending Hamilton College, and that those most impacted by the climate crisis will be low income and communities of color.
Climate change is happening here and it’s happening quickly. We need to halve our emissions by 2030 if we are going to avoid the worst impacts and stay below a global warming of 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. It is not too late to act. According to Christiana Figueres, the leader of the 2015 Paris Agreement, “This is the decade and we are the generation.”
Scroll down to learn more about each illustration.
How is local biodiversity going to be impacted by climate change?
To illustrate this question, I am creating a triptych of pen and ink drawings which focus on:
2020: Species currently in Oneida County which are threatened by climate change and will be less common in 2100
2020: Species currently in the Adirondack Park which are vulnerable to climate change and may disappear by 2100
2100: Projected species that will likely become more common in Oneida County and the Adirondack Park due to northward expansion as a result of climate change.
BIODIVERSITY
This triptych shows how biodiversity in Oneida County and the Adirondack Park are projected to change because of the climate crisis. It is expected to impact species biodiversity by altering reproductive rates, species interactions, and vulnerability to parasites and pests among other factors. Of 119 species surveyed by the New York Natural Heritage Program in 2011, 59% were found to be vulnerable to climate change. Some environmental threats to biodiversity in New York include warmer temperatures, increased precipitation, shorter winters and more extreme weather including thunderstorms, heatwaves, and floods. These changes are likely to cause some species, such as the American goldfinch, cedar waxwing, elm tree and ash tree, to move northward by 2100. Unfortunately, new environments are often less hospitable for these species as there might be less space or more competition for food.
Projected Loss of Biodiversity in Oneida County
Some of the species that will likely become less common (or locally extinct) in Oneida County include: red maple, Eastern hemlock, American elm, white ash, savannah sparrow (not illustrated), American goldfinch, cedar waxwing, American beech, and extra-striped snaketail.
Species such as the Eastern hemlock and white ash tree are indirectly impacted by climate change, as warming temperatures increase the range and reproductive rates of invasive pests like the hemlock wooly adelgid and emerald ash borer. Similarly, the common eastern bumblebee and yellow-banded bumblebee, which have already experienced population declines of 46% in North America between 1901-1974, are particularly susceptible to heat waves and increased precipitation.
Projected Loss of Biodiversity in the Adirondack Park
Some of the species that currently exist in the Adirondacks but will likely become less common (or locally extinct) by 2100 include: red spruce, pine martens, mosses, sundew plant, moose, boreal chickadee, quaking aspen, loon, and tiger spiketail. Other vulnerable species not illustrated include: brook trout, white pine, fishers, balsam fir, bobcats, and grey jays.
Projected Gain of Biodiversity in Oneida County and the Adirondack Park
In 2100, the forests of Oneida County and the Adirondack Park will likely more closely resemble the current forests of southern states like Kentucky and Georgia. Species that once thrived in the temperate climate will move northward, and those that stay will likely become more susceptible to disease and extreme weather events. It is still unclear how many species will be able to adapt quickly enough to these environmental changes, but it is safe to say that most species will be impacted in some way. Given that many of the species that are projected to become more common in 2100 were similar in both Oneida County and the Adirondack Park, one illustration was sufficient to show the incoming species in both regions.
Southern birds, like the turkey vulture and tufted titmouse, are likely to become even more common in New York by 2100. Black hickory, red oak and deer are also likely to increase in Oneida County and the Adirondack Park. Climate change is also dramatically altering the growing patterns of mushrooms and other fungi, which are fruiting earlier and longer than before due to warmer temperatures and autumnal rains.
ARTIST’S NOTES
There are many more species that could have been illustrated in this triptych. The purpose of this set is to provide some information on how biodiversity is projected to change over time. Some species, such as the common eastern bumblebee will likely decline nation-wide, however, for artistic purposes they were included in the Oneida County illustration. It is important to note that the populations of the illustrated species will not all decrease or increase at the same rate. Some may decrease in population while others may become locally extinct.
LYME DISEASE
According to the EPA, the incidence of Lyme disease in the United States has more than doubled since 1991. These two illustrations show the increase in Lyme disease cases in New York State from 1996 to 2018. Each tick represents roughly one Lyme disease case, with the larger ticks representing multiple cases within one area.
Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne illness in the United States, and cases are most heavily concentrated in the Northeast. Much like the rest of New York State, Clinton is already experiencing relatively high rates of Lyme disease. In 2016, there were approximately 14.2 confirmed cases of Lyme disease for every 100,000 Oneida County residents*. As temperatures continue to warm, the incidence of Lyme disease in Clinton is expected to increase. Areas that were previously uninhabitable to deer ticks (due to temperatures below 45ºF) are projected to see increased tick populations. Ticks are very dependent on the environment, so warmer temperatures and shorter winters could allow ticks to reproduce more quickly and be more active, increasing the time that humans could be exposed to Lyme disease. In 2019, New York State Department of Health found that 56% of ticks sampled tested positive for Lyme disease causing bacteria, which means that increased tick populations will likely lead to increased spread of Lyme disease.
*The actual number of illnesses is likely greater than what is reported to health officials, given that Lyme disease can be difficult to diagnose.
DAIRY INDUSTRY
The climate crisis is projected to affect milk production of dairy cows due to their sensitivity to excessive temperature and humidity. One study found that using present-day prices, climate change impacts nationally are predicted to annually cost $2.2 billion by the end of the century.
Locally, dairy farms make up the largest part of the livestock sector, with more than 18,000 dairy cows recorded in Oneida County in 2018. Current data suggests that temperatures from 1960-2020 have already resulted in the loss of 45 gallons per cow each year during the summer months. By 2100, increased temperatures and humidity are projected to decrease average annual milk production per cow by 90.6 gallons. That is equivalent to approximately 1,630,800 gallons of milk in Oneida County per year under the most extreme climate projection (RCP 8.5). If we act to reduce emissions and keep global warming between 2ºC to 3ºC under an intermediate climate model scenario of RCP 4.5, then we would likely only see an annual average loss in milk of 70 gallons per cow.